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Monday, October 4, 2010

Post-market: Markets end with modest gains


October 04, 2010 | 5:30 PM
Markets end with modest gains
The domestic markets shut the day with modest gains as fast moving consumer goods and information technology stocks weigh on the markets

Major headlines
  • Ashok Leyland September vehicle sales up by 90%; the stock closes 2.80% higher
  • JP Associates cement shipments up by 61% in September; the stock ends 2.06% up
  • IVRCL Infrastructure bags Rs1,119.76 crore orders; the stock closes 1.35% higher
Indian indices
The domestic markets advanced for the third straight day. During the session, the Nifty touched another milestone ? 6200 levels in early trades but was not able to hold on to it. The Nifty slowly wiped out nearly 75% of its gains in the second half of trade on profit booking, coupled with negative European markets and closed with marginal gains.

Metal and healthcare (HC) companies' shares along with Reliance Industries, Housing Development Finance Corporation, ICICI Bank, Reliance Communications, Mahindra & Mahindra, Wipro, DLF and ACC witnessed buying interest, which helped the markets to stay in the positive terrain. However, the sell-off in ITC, Oil & Natural Gas Corporation, Bharti Airtel, Larsen & Toubro, Infosys Technologies, NTPC, Tata Consultancy Services, Sterlite Industries, Hero Honda, State Bank of India, Bajaj Auto, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever and Tata Power were the major losers, which led the markets to erase most of its gains. In the Mid-cap space, Bhushan Steel, Uco Bank, Edelweiss Capital, Vijaya Bank and Tulip Telecom gained by 5-14% while Pipavav Shipyard, Motilal Oswal, Indraprastha Gas, Gujarat Flourochem and Shree Global fell by 4-6%.

 INDEX PERFORMANCE
Index
Close
% chg
Sensex
20,475.73
0.15
Nifty
6,159.45
0.26

 MARKET INDICATORS 
Top Movers (Group A)
Company
Price (Rs)
% chg
Gainers
Bhushan Steel
506.85
16.79
UCO Bank
129.15
10.62
Suzlon Energy
58.30
7.27
Losers
Pipava Shipyard
80.00
-7.19
Indraprastha Gas
311.95
-3.99
Godrej Consumer
396.15
-3.19
Market Statistics
s
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,429
926
Declines
1,541
894
Volumes (Rs crore)
Cash (BSE+NSE)
23,058
F&O (NSE)
110,471
Market Outlook: We have monthly factory orders and pending home sales data in the US tonight.
The Sensex began the session on a buoyant note at 20501, 56 points higher tracking strong Asian markets. The index started to move upwards, hitting the day's high of 20707 in early trades. In the late morning session, the Sensex gradually began to trim its gains. The index further erased its gains in the afternoon trades, as the European markets opened lower. In the late trades, the Sensex wiped out all its gains and slipped into the negative zone, hitting the day?s low of 20,437 as selling was seen in fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and information technology (IT) stocks. 

At the finishing line, the Sensex ended at 20476, 31 points higher. The Nifty ended at 6159, up by 16 points.

Bond and Rupee update: India?s ten-year bonds dropped for a second day on concern that the central bank will increase interest rates for a sixth time this year to temper inflation. The Indian rupee opened at Rs44.36 per dollar versus Rs44.48.
Market sentiment
The market breadth was unconstructive as falling stocks outpaced the advancing ones. Out of the 3,094 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,541 declined while 1,429 advanced. Hundred and twenty-four stocks remained unchanged.

Viewing volumes
Industrial finance company - IFCI was traded the most, with over 1.52 crore shares changing hands on the BSE, followed by wind turbine major- Suzlon Energy (1.28 crore shares), India's second largest developer - Unitech (0.45 crore shares), a Government of India hydro power firm - NHPC (0.42 crore shares) and public sector bank ? Uco Bank (0.41 crore shares).
Sectoral & stock screening
Of the 13 sectoral indices on the BSE, nine closed in the green while four in the red. BSE HC was the top gainer, up by 1.69%, followed by BSE Consumer Durables (CD) that surged by 1.47% and BSE Bankex advanced by 0.79%. On the other hand, BSE FMCG was the top loser, down by 0.71%, followed by BSE IT that declined by 0.37% and BSE TECk fell by 0.32%.

Looking into 'A' group stocks, top three gainers were ? Bhushan Steel gained by 16.79%, followed by Uco Bank that surged by 10.62% and Suzlon Energy 
rose by 7.27%. Top three losers were ? Pipavav Shipyard slid by 7.19%, followed by Indraprastha Gas that fell by 3.99% and Godrej Consumer Products declined by 3.19%.
Global signals
The European shares extended losses to hit a one-month low, with automobile stocks featuring among the top losers on lingering concerns about global economic growth.

The major Asian indices closed in the positive territory except Japan's Nikkei index.

The US stock index futures signal towards a lower opening on the Wall Street tonight, ahead of the monthly factory orders and pending home sales data.
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Nifty Futures trading idea for 5th October 2010

Nifty Future
Buy at / above: 6181.89   Targets: 6198.46 - 6218.15 - 6237.87 - 6257.63
Stoploss : 6162.25
Sell at / below: 6162.25   Targets: 6145.71 - 6126.12 - 6106.56 - 6087.04
Stoploss : 6181.89

Sunday, October 3, 2010

NIFTY FUT TRADING IDEA

NIFTY FUT

Recommendation:
Buy at / above: 6181.89   Targets: 6198.46 - 6218.15 - 6237.87 - 6257.63
Stoploss : 6162.25
Sell at / below: 6162.25   Targets: 6145.71 - 6126.12 - 6106.56 - 6087.04
Stoploss : 6181.89

Friday, October 1, 2010

Stock Idea - GAIL

Stock Idea
[October 01, 2010] 
Summary of Contents
STOCK IDEA 
GAIL (India)
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs585
Current market price: Rs476

Laying the pipeline of growth 
Key points
  • Aggressive expansion in its core gas utility business: GAIL (India) is on an aggressive expansion spree to debottleneck its existing pipeline network and set up new pipelines to link the key upcoming LNG terminals (in Kochi and Dhabol). It has earmarked a capex of Rs30,000 crore for the next four to five years that will result in a strong growth in its core gas utilities business in the coming years. 
  • Blended realisation to sustain: GAIL (India)?s blended tariff would have a limited impact even if the HVJ-GREP-DVPL* tariff declines due to the benefits from the company?s investment into the new pipelines. The additional investment in the development of the pipeline infrastructure would augment the regulated asset base (RAB) and thus would arrest any decline in the blended tariff. The encouraging thing is that the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) has proposed a tariff of Rs53.65 per mmbtu (Rs1,985 per tcm) for GREP expansion, which is double the existing tariff for the HVJ-GREP-DVPL pipeline.
  • Subsidy burden remains as overhang: GAIL (India) has to bear a subsidy burden even though it is not an upstream player like Oil and Natural Gas Corporation and Oil India. The subsidy burden would continue to limit the earnings growth of its LPG business. Moreover, there is a regulatory risk in its core gas transmission business.
  • Buy with price target of Rs585: Despite the subsidy burden, the strong growth visibility in its core gas transmission business would drive its earnings growth of 15% CAGR during FY2010-13. We also see value accretion from doubling of the petrochemical capacity by FY2014, and the exploration & production (E&P) and city gas distribution (CGD) businesses going forward. We recommend Buy on GAIL (India) with a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) price target of Rs585 (where we have valued the gas transmission business at Rs372 per share and the other core businesses at Rs146 per share; the rest of the value comes from the E&P business and the investments on its books). At the current market price, the stock trades at a price/earnings ratio of 12.7x and EV/EBITDA of 8.2x based on our FY2012 estimates. 

Investment Buy - Pipavav Shipyard

Buy Pipavav Shipyard with Stop Loss of 80 for target for 100-105