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Thursday, September 24, 2009

Stunning comeback in late trade; Nifty ends tad short of 5K

The Nifty showed smart recovery in the last one hour of the trade and ended the session as well as the September series on a positive note. It was within the shouting distance of the 5,000 mark at close.

The markets were extremely volatile in the second half of the trade on the back of settlement day. However, they were under selling pressure till the 14:30 hours IST, due to weak global cues.

Financial, telecom, technology (barring Infosys), PSU power, realty, oil marketing and FMCG companies' shares supported the markets to turn positive. However, metal, auto and private power companies' shares remained under pressure throughout the session. Heavyweight Infosys was down over 3%.

September Series

Index

Chg (%)

BANKEX 14.83
AUTO 14.1
METAL 13.57
REALTY 7.55
SMALLCAP 6.89
NIFTY 6.36
SENSEX 6.34
MIDCAP 6.25
IT 4.77
TECk 4.1
PHARMA 3.84
OIL&GAS 3.09
CAP GOODS 2.83
POWER 1.89
FMCG -1.36
The 30-share BSE Sensex closed at 16,781.43, up 61.93 points or 0.37%, after seeing an intraday high of 16,834.10 and showing recovery of 286.5 points from day's low of 16,494.92. The 50-share NSE Nifty tested the 5,000 mark while went closer to 4900 mark as well during the day, before closing the day at 4986.55, up 16.60 points or 0.33%. It recovered 82.5 points from day's low of 4904.05.

In the September series, the markets touched a new 2009 high of 16943.49 and 5036.30, respectively. Both equity benchmarks closed with 6.3% gain led by banks, autos and metals.

The Nifty October futures' premium expanded significantly, ended with 15.5 points premium, as per provisional data. Big build-up was seen at Nifty October 4900 Put. The Nifty futures have seen around 65% rollover. Huge rollovers were seen in banking space; UCO Bank has seen a rollover of 84% and Vijaya Bank 80%.

Satish Betadpur of Independent International Investment Research said the markets were in a trading range. "The Sensex is going to trade anywhere between 15,500 and 17,500, until earnings come in."

Mitesh Thacker of miteshthacker.com said around 4,900, there would be a very good buying opportunity while on the upside 5,050 was a good technical point. "Overall the index still has strength to test the levels of around 5,240-5,250 over the next few days."

The markets closed with one of the highest turnover in 2009 at Rs 1,43,881.35 crore on settlement day. This included Rs 21,639.95 crore from the NSE cash segment, Rs 1,16,850.34 crore from the NSE F&O and the balance Rs 5,391.06 crore from the BSE cash segment.

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On the global front, European markets almost recovered and were trading marginally lower, at the time of closing of Indian equities. Asian markets ended mixed. Hang Seng tanked 2.5%. Straits Times, Kospi and Taiwan Weighted fell 0.7-1% while Nikkei gained 1.7% (closed for last three days). Shanghai was up 0.4%.

Index

Closing Value

Chg (%)

BANKEX 9,543.42 1.48
PHARMA 4,091.89 0.91
MIDCAP 6,186.51 0.74
FMCG 2,562.25 0.73
REALTY 4,444.26 0.67
SMALLCAP 7,382.77 0.46
CAP GOODS 13,553.19 0.39
POWER 3,042.63 0.34
OIL&GAS 10,141.97 0.02
TECk 3,218.69 -0.57
AUTO 6,553.53 -0.67
METAL 14,271.74 -1.13
IT 4,490.56 -1.59
In the banking space, HDFC Bank surged 3.39%. ICICI Bank, Bank of Baroda, PNB and SBI went up 0.8-1.7%. Telecom stocks like Reliance Communication and Bharti Airtel were up 1.4-2%. Idea Cellular rose 0.46%.

Technology stocks like HCL Tech, Wipro and TCS gained 1.4-3.8% while Infosys lost 3.40% and Tech Mahindra down 0.93%.

In the capital goods space, L&T, Siemens and ABB were up 0.7-1.4% while BHEL fell 0.98%. FMCG stocks like Marico, Godrej Consumer, United Spirits, ITC and HUL went up 0.6-2.6%.

Pharma stocks like Lupin, Wockhardt, Dr Reddys Labs, Ranbaxy Labs, Biocon and Sun Pharma gained 1-5%. In the oil & gas space, BPCL, HPCL and IOC moved up 1.5-3% while Cairn India and ONGC fell 1-1.5%. Reliance Industries was flat.

In the realty pack, Indiabulls Real, Orbit Corporation, HDIL and Omaxe were up 1-2%. Unitech and DLF were up 0.2% each.

Power stocks like Torrent Power, Lanco Infratech, NTPC and Power Grid Corp gained 1-4.5%. Tata Power rose 0.43%. However, Suzlon Energy lost 2.54%.

The market breadth was marginally positive; about 1,532 shares advanced while 1,357 shares declined, and 318 shares remained unchanged. The broader indices were up 0.5-0.7%.

In the midcap space, UCO Bank, MRF, Bank of Maharashtra, Dena Bank and Gujarat NRE Coke gained 7-11% while IBN18 Broadcast, Asian Star, Kirloskar Brothers, Simplex Infra and LIC Housing Finance fell 3.5-7%.

In the smallcap space, Surana Industries was up 19%. Godawari Power, PVR, Madhucon Projects and Sarda Energy went up 9.5-11.5%. However, Rajesh Exports, KGN Industries, Jindal Worldwid, PVP Ventures and Venus Remedies slipped 5-8%.


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Nifty bounces back, tests 5000 mark amid volatility

At 14:58 hours IST - the Nifty bounced back sharply led by Reliance Industries, SBI & ICICI Bank, and was hovering around 5000 mark. It was seeing some volatility ahead of expiry. NTPC, Bharti, HDFC and HDFC Bank and HCL Tech were leading counters, gained 1.8-3%.

Shares of banking, PSU power, telecom, FMCG, oil marketing, technology (barring Infosys), select capital goods and pharma stocks were seeing buying interest. However, selling continued in auto, metal and select cement stocks along with ONGC, Infosys and BHEL.

The Sensex was up 99 points, to 16,819 and the Nifty up 31 points, to 5,001. The Nifty October futures were trading with 16-18 points premium.

The broader indices were also up over 0.5%, as the market breadth turned positive. About 676 shares advanced while 580 shares declined on the NSE.

In the midcap space, UCO Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, MRF, Dena Bank and Carborundum were up 6-10% while IBN18 Broadcast, LIC Housing Finance, Simplex Infra, Allcargo Global and United Breweries fell 3.5-6%.

In the smallcap space, Surana Industries, Godawari Power, Sarda Energy, Madhucon Projects and PVR gained 9-11% while Rajesh Exports, KGN Industries, Jindal Worldwid, Entegra and PVP Ventures lost 5-8%.

Sensex southbound; HDFC Bk, HDFC, Bharti, NTPC shine

At 14:12 hours IST - the Sensex continued to trade lower on the back of selling in heavyweights like Infosys Tech, Reliance Industries, ONGC, BHEL, DLF and SBI, which were down 1-4%. However, other heavyweights like Bharti Airtel, NTPC, HDFC Bank and HDFC were trading 1.6-2.6% higher, which capped the losses.

About 0.8-1.2% fall in European markets also weighed on the equity benchmarks. US index futures were marginally weak.

The Sensex was down 101 points, to 16,618 and the Nifty fell 29 points, to 4,940. The broader indices were flat in trade; about 541 shares advanced while 704 shares declined on the NSE. The Nifty October futures were trading with 18 points premium.

Vibhav Kapoor of IL&FS is of the view that while the longer-term outlook for the Nifty is bright, it is going to have a tougher time over the next two-three quarters than it has had in the last two quarters.

He said, "4,750 on the downside and maybe 5,200 or 5,250 on the upside is possible." However, he doesn’t see the Nifty crossing the 5,250 level probably for the next six months or so.

On the sectoral front, oil & gas exploration, realty, auto, metal, private power and technology companies' shares were under pressure while telecom, PSU power, FMCG and oil marketing companies' shares were seeing buying interest.

Top percentage gainers - Omkar Overseas shot up 20%. Godawari Power, Liberty Shoes, Sarda Energy, Surana Industries, Lyka Labs, UCO Bank and Granules India were up 9.5-12%.

Top percentage losers - Filatex Fashion, Rajesh Exports, Flex Foods, Suryalata Spg, Nicco Parks, Mangalam Timber, Indus Fila, Sutlej Textiles and AXIS IT&T fell 5-9%.

Nifty slips; IT, metals, auto, realty, oil & gas down

At 13.08 hrs IST, the Nifty was trading lower, but strong support was seen at 4900 level. Stocks like Reliance, Infosys, ONGC, ICICI Bank and SBI were negative contributors to the bourses. IT, metals, auto, realty, oil &gas and power stocks were trading weak. About 0.8-1.4% fall in European markets was also putting pressure on the benchmark indices.

The Sensex was down 128.11 points or 0.77% at 16613.19, and the Nifty was down 39.95 points or 0.80% at 4936.10.

About 1257 shares advanced, 1604 shares declined, and 346 shares were unchanged.

Amitabh Chakraborty, Religare Securities: "We should see expiry around the 4950 mark. Markets are overbought right now, but we could see 5200 post expiry. I am cautious on October as the earnings have been factored in and fund raising by companies at these levels is discomforting. I would go short on Nifty and high beta stocks and buy defensives like Utilities, Pharma and FMCG."

Top losers on the Sensex were Infosys at Rs 2,273.40 down 3.9%, Hindalco at Rs 129.30 down 3.76%, Sterlite Ind at Rs 749 down 2.52%, DLF at Rs 414.85 down 2.08% and Hero Honda at Rs 1,646.20 down 1.97%.

However, top gainers on the Sensex were NTPC at Rs 213.60 up 2.54%, Bharti Airtel at Rs 421.50 up 1.96%, HDFC Bank at Rs 1,596 up 1.72%, HDFC at Rs 2,696 up 1.62% and ITC at Rs 232.50 up 1%.

The BSE midcap and smallcap indices were trading flat.

Top gainers on the BSE Midcap - Carborundum, MRF, Wockhardt, UTV Software and Peninsula Land were up 5-9%.

Top gainers on the BSE Smallcap - Godawari Power, Oil Country, Vardhman Text, Orient Abrasive and Hikal were up 9-14%.

Sensex trading weak; RIL, Infosys, Hindalco down

At 11.45 am, the Sensex was trading weak with a loss of 1% at 16555 mark. Selling pressure was seen in IT, metal, realty, auto, oil & gas and banking stocks. However, some buying was seen in FMCG stocks. Reliance, Infosys, ICICI Bank, SBI and ONGC were negative contributors to the Sensex.

The Sensex was down 186.28 points or 1.11% at 16555.02, and the Nifty was down 51.00 points or 1.02% at 4925.05.

About 1118 shares advanced, 1730 shares declined, and 359 shares were unchanged.

Ambareesh Baliga of Karvy Stock Broking said that for today the markets will be down. However, he added that we need to watch whether the Nifty will break 4,730-4,750 mark, “which is a very good support level for the markets”. According to Baliga, in case the market breaks that level, it will head downwards for a while, but if that level is held then Nifty could try for 5,200-5,300 mark. Baliga further said that if the market breaks 4,700-4,730, there will be troubled times again.

Top losers on the Sensex were Infosys at Rs 2,270.50 down 4.02%, Hindalco at Rs 129.55 down 3.57%, Sterlite Ind at Rs 747 down 2.78%, Tata Steel at Rs 507.45 down 2.51% and DLF at Rs 413.15 down 2.48%.

Index heavyweight Reliance was trading at Rs 2,070.00 down 1.49% from its previous close of Rs 2,101.40.

However, top gainers on the Sensex were Bharti Airtel at Rs 422.25 down 2.14%, NTPC at Rs 211.25 down 1.42%, L&T at Rs 1,648 down 0.81%, HDFC at Rs 2,673 down 0.75% and ITC at Rs 231.90 down 0.74%.

Refinery major HPCL was trading at Rs 402.55 up 2.94% from its previous close of Rs 391.05.
Nifty slips further ahead of expiry; oil exploration dip

At 10:55 hours IST - the Nifty slipped further ahead of F&O expiry. The sell-off in metals, technology, auto, realty, private power, oil & gas exploration and select banking stocks was dragging the Nifty towards the 4900 mark. On the global front, weak Asian markets were also putting pressure on the benchmark indices; Hang Seng fell 2.8%. Shanghai, Straits Times, Kospi and Taiwan Weighted fell 0.7-1.7%. However, Nikkei gained 1%.

The market breadth was negative; about 284 shares advanced while 906 shares declined on the NSE. The broader indices slipped 1% each.

The Sensex was down 215 points, to 16,504 and the Nifty was down 63 points, to 4,906. The Nifty October Futures were trading with 17 points premium.

Almost all the sectoral indices were in the red. The BSE IT, Metal and Realty indices fell 2-2.9%. TECk, Auto, Oil & Gas and Power indices slipped 1-1.7%. However, Bharti, Power Grid, BPCL, L&T, HDFC, Ranbaxy and PNB were gainers.

Crude declined to $ 68.2 per barrel on the NYMEX. In the oil & gas space, Cairn India, Reliance Industries and ONGC were down 1.5-2%. However, HPCL, BPCL and IOC gained 1.5-2.5%.

Technology stocks like Infosys and HCL Tech fell 4% each. Tech Mahindra, TCS and Wipro slipped 0.7-1.4%.

In the metal pack, Hindalco, Tata Steel, Sterlite Industries, SAIL, Jindal Steel and NALCO were down 1.5-3.4%.

Auto stocks like M&M, Maruti Suzuki, Ashok Leyland, Hero Honda, Bajaj Auto and Tata Motors declined 1-2.4%. In the realty space, DLF lost 3.22% and Unitech down 2.38%.

Sensex down over 100 pts on weak global cues; metals dip

The Sensex opened lower and continued its downtrend for the second consecutive day following weak global cues. Fall in commodities and rise in dollar Index also weighed on the markets. All sectoral indices were in the red in early trade; metal, realty, technology and infrastructure stocks were witnessing selling pressure.

At 9:56 am, the Nifty was down 36 points, to 4,933 and the Sensex fell 119 points, to 16,600. About 139 shares advanced while 586 shares declined on the NSE.

Among the frontliners, Sterlite, Infosys, Nalco, Suzlon Energy, Cairn India, DLF and Unitech were the losers while ITC, ONGC, HPCL, BPCL and Power Grid were the gainers.

Alembic shot up 7%. Jagran Prakashan, Harrisons and Jayshree Tea were up over 1%.

Recently listed stocks like Globus Spirits fell 3% while Jindal Cotex was up marginally.

Global cues:

Asian markets were trading mixed. Hang Seng tanked 2.7%. Shanghai, Straits Times, Kospi and Taiwan Weighted fell 1-1.4%. However, Nikkei gained 1.2% (it closed for last three days). Jakarta went up 0.6%.

The US markets ended near day’s low after Fed said that they will gradually slow purchases of mortgage debt. Fed Officials left benchmark interest-rate target between 0-0.25% as expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 81.3 points at 9,748.5. The S&P 500 Index was down 10.8 points at 1,061 and Nasdaq Composite down 15 points at 2,131.4.

Currencies:

Dollar Index has declined 2% in September and was down 15% from 2009 highs.

Dollar appreciated 24 bps versus Euro at 1.4757.

Yen depreciated 10 bps versus USD at 91.2.

Commodities:

Reuters CRB (Commodity Research Bureau) was down 1%.

Crude oil declined nearly 4% at $68.9/bbl.

Inventory builds up came in at 2.86 million barrels against expectation of withdrawal of 1.40 million bbls.

Copper declined 2.5% to $6138/tonne. Inventories were at 4-month highs.

Baltic Dry Index declined 3.2% to 2175.

Market cues:

-FIIs net buy USD 312 million in equity on September 22
-NSE F&O Open Int down by 1745 crore at Rs 1,12,352 crore
-FIIs net buy Rs 1749 crore September 23
-DIIs net buy Rs 500 crore in cash markets September 23 (prov)
-FIIs net sell Rs 1176 crore in F&O on September 23

F&O cues:

-Futures Open Int down by Rs 1111 crore
-Options Open Int down by Rs 634 crore
-Nifty down 1%, Open Int up 2%
-Nifty futures trade at 9-pt prem versus 24-pt prem
-Nifty IVs at 25-29%
-Nifty Open Int PCR at 1.68 versus 1.77
-Nifty Oct Open Interest PCR at 1.2
-Nifty Puts shed 24.6 lakh shrs in Open Int
-Nifty Calls add 9.2 lakh shares in Open Int
-Nifty October 5300 Call adds 7.5 lk shrs in Open Int
-Nifty October 5100 Call adds 2.9 lk shrs in Open Int
-Nifty October 4900 Put adds 5.2 lk shrs in Open Int
-Nifty October 5000 Put adds 3.2 lk shrs in Open Int
-Nifty October 4800 Put adds 3.1 lk shrs in Open Int
-Nifty September 5000 Put sheds 21 lk shrs in Open Int
-Nifty September 5100 Put sheds 7.5 lk shrs in Open Int
-Stock Futures shed 27 lakh shares in Open Int

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